Domestic market trends continue to take their cue from US developments. Dollar gains over the fourth quarter on the back of better data releases and anticipation of stronger growth this year along with a more cautious Fed has driven both yields and the Dollar higher. The resulting weaker Ringgit prompted outflows to drive equity markets lower. Dollar and yields remain vulnerable to a sudden shift in data or a rise in policy uncertainties. Given the continued strong domestic economic dynamics, a positive shift in Ringgit trends will be a boon to local financial markets.
Large moves overnight resulting in big moves this morning. While the moves might be big, local assets are largely trading within well-worn ranges. For prices to decline further, we will have to see a material change to Malaysia’s prospects or for the Dollar to extend its gains. While the US economy remains robust, substantial policy outcome uncertainties with the possibility of much higher inflation can be a substantial hit to growth expectations and thus will limit the Dollar’s upside. Recent declines to both the Ringgit and local equities then, are a good reason to load up.
Weare approaching the year end and there is little to detract from the positive outlook for local markets. Low inflation, good growth dynamics and expected Ringgit strength favours a balanced portfolio with a healthy allocation to small caps.
- Recent local underperformance due to Ringgit weakness on back ofDollar strength.
- Dollar higher on better data and geopolitics.
- US yields moving down on concern over Fed caution.
- Higher inflation, cautious Fed and policy uncertainty to hit theDollar.
- Ringgit gains on strong domestic dynamics to benefit both bonds and equities